以下為我們的點評：
聯儲的信譽度（Credibility）今年以來一直在受損，也因此市場無法容忍一而再再二三的失信，根據聯儲自身的貨幣政策常態化的進程設定，聯儲需要逐步加息，而如果2016年一整年都不加息的話，相當於政策路徑完全偏離了其行動綱領（貨幣政策常態化），且不談資產負債表的常態化，有關利率，聯儲的承諾是“When economic conditions and the economic outlook warrant a less accommodative monetary policy, the Committee will raise its target range for the federal funds rate.”當前的經濟增長以及就業水準已經達到了加息的標準。聯儲是找不到理由在2016年內不加息的。
有關市場波動，耶倫曾經明確表態聯儲可以忍受市場波動，而風險事件的發生在過去一年更是相當頻繁，費舍已經對此表過態……“因此，我們正接近我們的目標。不僅如此，就業表現呈現出相當的耐受性。在過去兩年內，我們已從不同維度考量了希臘債務危機、貿易加權美元升值20%、中國經濟放緩及隨之帶來的匯率不確定性、年初六周的金融市場動盪、五月就業增長的疲軟及英國退歐等一系列事件對美國經濟的影響並採取了相關措施。因此，即使面對這些衝擊，勞動力市場狀況持續改善：就業率繼續增長，失業率目前已經降低到預估中的自然失業率。”（2016年8月21日的表態）這意味著聯儲對於外部環境以及風險事件已經不那麼敏感了。因為事實證明在諸多黑天鵝事件接踵而至的環境下，經濟仍然在穩步復蘇。
通脹壓力正在加大，聯儲需要提前行動，有關通脹的解讀，可以閱讀我們之前的美國通脹專題研究。
去年12月加息以來，耶倫的觀點可謂飄忽不定，一方面強調過“Short-term financial volatility is not our focus。（短期金融波動並非關注焦點）”，亦又承認全球風險事件也是聯儲的考量點（比如Brexit）。事實上，耶倫對於這些外部因素的關注原因實質上仍然是服務硬目標的，海外的情況之所以需要納入考量，是因為它影響了美國的就業和通脹水準。聯儲注重海外情況的原因不是因為聯儲擔心其他經濟體受到聯儲政策的溢出，而是因為聯儲關心海外情況對聯儲硬目標——通脹與就業的溢出效應。
以下為陳詞原文
The Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy has made further progress this year toward the Federal Reserve's dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Job gains averaged 180,000 per month from January through October, a somewhat slower pace than last year but still well above estimates of the pace necessary to absorb new entrants to the labor force. The unemployment rate, which stood at 4.9 percent in October, has held relatively steady since the beginning of the year. The stability of the unemployment rate, combined with above-trend job growth, suggests that the U.S. economy has had a bit more "room to run" than anticipated earlier. This favorable outcome has been reflected in the labor force participation rate, which has been about unchanged this year, on net, despite an underlying downward trend stemming from the aging of the U.S. population. While above-trend growth of the labor force and employment cannot continue indefinitely, there nonetheless appears to be scope for some further improvement in the labor market. The unemployment rate is still a little above the median of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' estimates of its longer-run level, and involuntary part-time employment remains elevated relative to historical norms. Further employment gains may well help support labor force participation as well as wage gains; indeed, there are some signs that the pace of wage growth has stepped up recently. While the improvements in the labor market over the past year have been widespread across racial and ethnic groups, it is troubling that unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics remain higher than for the nation overall, and that the annual income of the median African American household and the median Hispanic household is still well below the median income of other U.S. households.
對就業情況表示滿意，並表示經濟增長還有向上的空間。人口老齡化的情況下，勞動參與率幾乎沒有變化。薪資增速苗頭不錯。
Meanwhile, U.S. economic growth appears to have picked up from its subdued pace earlier this year. After rising at an annual rate of just 1 percent in the first half of this year, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is estimated to have increased nearly 3 percent in the third quarter. In part, the pickup reflected some rebuilding of inventories and a surge in soybean exports. In addition, consumer spending has continued to post moderate gains, supported by solid growth in real disposable income, upbeat consumer confidence, low borrowing rates, and the ongoing effects of earlier increases in household wealth. By contrast, business investment has remained relatively soft, in part because of the drag on outlays for drilling and mining structures that has resulted from earlier declines in oil prices. Manufacturing output continues to be restrained by the weakness in economic growth abroad and by the appreciation in the U.S. dollar over the past two years. And while new housing construction has been subdued in recent quarters despite rising prices, the underlying fundamentals--including a lean stock of homes for sale, an improving labor market, and the low level of mortgage rates--are favorable for a pickup.
庫存投資以及大豆出口提振了經濟增長。消費者收入、支出情況良好。商業投資比較疲軟（油價引起的），工業產出受到美元升值以及海外經濟疲軟的困擾。房屋建設未隨價格起勢，但現在的基本面：庫存，勞動力市場改善以及較低的繳款利率是有利於上漲的。
Turning to inflation, overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1-1/4 percent over the 12 months ending in September, a somewhat higher pace than earlier this year but still below the FOMC's 2 percent objective. Much of this shortfall continues to reflect earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile energy and food prices and tends to be a better indicator of future overall inflation, has been running closer to 1-3/4 percent.
通脹有所加速，但未達到目標。油價以及非能源進口影響了物價。核心通脹已經接近1.75%。
With regard to the outlook, I expect economic growth to continue at a moderate pace sufficient to generate some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the next couple of years. This judgment reflects my view that monetary policy remains moderately accommodative and that ongoing job gains, along with low oil prices, should continue to support household purchasing power and therefore consumer spending. In addition, global economic growth should firm, supported by accommodative monetary policies abroad. As the labor market strengthens further and the transitory influences holding down inflation fade, I expect inflation to rise to 2 percent.
預計經濟將繼續平穩增長，勞動力市場會繼續改善，通脹也將在未來幾年達至目標。所以我的貨幣政策傾向仍然偏寬鬆，以迎合當下的就業改善，低油價，以促居民部門購買力及消費的改善。全球經濟會在寬鬆環境內繼續改善。
Monetary Policy
I will turn now to the implications of recent economic developments and the economic outlook for monetary policy. The stance of monetary policy has supported improvement in the labor market this year, along with a return of inflation toward the FOMC's 2 percent objective. In September, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent and stated that, while the case for an increase in the target range had strengthened, it would, for the time being, wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.
At our meeting earlier this month, the Committee judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee's objectives. This judgment recognized that progress in the labor market has continued and that economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. And inflation, while still below the Committee's 2 percent objective, has increased somewhat since earlier this year. Furthermore, the Committee judged that near-term risks to the outlook were roughly balanced.
短期風險已然消散。
Waiting for further evidence does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Rather, with the unemployment rate remaining steady this year despite above-trend job gains, and with inflation continuing to run below its target, the Committee judged that there was somewhat more room for the labor market to improve on a sustainable basis than the Committee had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Nonetheless, the Committee must remain forward looking in setting monetary policy. Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee's longer-run policy goals. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability.
利率過低會鼓勵過度的風險承擔並破壞金融穩定。
The FOMC continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability. This assessment is based on the view that the neutral federal funds rate--meaning the rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel--appears to be currently quite low by historical standards. Consistent with this view, growth in aggregate spending has been moderate in recent years despite support from the low level of the federal funds rate and the Federal Reserve's large holdings of longer-term securities. With the federal funds rate currently only somewhat below estimates of the neutral rate, the stance of monetary policy is likely moderately accommodative, which is appropriate to foster further progress toward the FOMC's objectives. But because monetary policy is only moderately accommodative, the risk of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited, and gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years.
未來幾年逐步加息是合意的，且相對快的加息步伐是可接受的。
Of course, the economic outlook is inherently uncertain, and, as always, the appropriate path for the federal funds rate will change in response to changes to the outlook and associated risks.
Thank you. I would be pleased to answer your questions.
